An Empirical and Data-Driven Assessment of Penal Control, Net-Widening, and Reform Priorities: Alternative Sanctions in Albania

Abstract

Albania exhibits a distinctive pattern of penal control, combining one of Europe’s highest probation rates (413 per 100,000 inhabitants) with a comparatively high incarceration rate (192 per 100,000 inhabitants). According to the Council of Europe’s SPACE II typology (2024), this combination places Albania in Category 8, a configuration associated with potential net-widening rather than the effective substitution of imprisonment with non-custodial sanctions. The combined correctional rate of 605 persons per 100,000 inhabitants further indicates a high overall intensity of penal supervision. Using quantitative data from the Council of Europe’s SPACE II database and comparative indicators of probation and imprisonment, this study empirically examines the structure and use of alternative sanctions in Albania and assesses whether the available evidence is consistent with the net-widening hypothesis. The analysis shows that Article 59 of the Albanian Criminal Code, concerning the suspension of sentences and probation, accounted for 83.7% of all alternative sanctions in 2024, indicating substantial concentration of the use of alternative sanctions within a single legal mechanism. The exclusion of certain categories of offenders from conditional release also raises concerns regarding the consistency of the Albanian framework with Council of Europe Recommendation Rec(2003)22 and relevant European human rights standards. Moreover, the ratio of 215 probationers per 100 prisoners, substantially exceeding the European median, provides empirical evidence consistent with the net-widening hypothesis. However, causal confirmation requires individual-level longitudinal data capable of tracking offenders’ trajectories through the criminal justice system. The findings suggest that future reforms should prioritize reducing reliance on imprisonment and strengthening the substitutive function of community-based sanctions rather than merely expanding the availability of alternative penalties.