Embodied Carbon Impacts of Post-Earthquake Reconstruction in Reinforced Concrete Buildings: A Life-Cycle Assessment

Abstract

This study quantifies the embodied carbon of structural concrete in post-earthquake residential reconstruction using a probabilistic life cycle assessment (LCA) framework. The analysis focuses on Durres, Albania, and addresses the lack of scalable, programme-level assessments. The methodology combines detailed structural inventory data with process-based LCA, Monte Carlo simulation (N = 10,000), and typology-based scaling. Emissions are estimated at the material and building levels and extrapolated to a reconstruction programme of 100 residential buildings. Sensitivity and statistical analyses are applied to identify key emission drivers and assess uncertainty. Results indicate a volume-weighted emission intensity of 0.325 t CO₂-eq/m³, with cement contributing 80–85% of total emissions. Total programme emissions are approximately 2.15 × 10⁵ tCO₂-eq. Scenario analysis shows that partial substitution of ordinary Portland cement can reduce emissions by 25–30%. The findings demonstrate that embodied carbon is primarily governed by cement content and structural design choices. The proposed framework enables programme-level assessment based on real structural data and supports the integration of LCA into early design stages for low-carbon reconstruction.