Data-Driven Regression Modelling of Insolvency Outcomes: Judicial Efficiency, Foreign Participation, and Recovery Trends

Teuta Hoxha; Enkeleda Olldashi; Bahaa Hamzah Almahmodi; Andres Annuk; Hussein Alkattan; Mostafa Abotaleb

Authors

Teuta Hoxha Faculty of Law and Human Sciences, Mediterranean University, Tirana, Albania https://orcid.org/0009-0008-8498-6378
Enkeleda Olldashi Faculty of Law, University of Tirana, Tirana, Albania https://orcid.org/0009-0006-0267-1053
Bahaa Hamzah Almahmodi 3Department of Information Technology, Management Technical College, Al-Furat Al-Awsat Technical University, Kufa, Iraq https://orcid.org/0009-0009-3845-5522
Andres Annuk Institute of Forestry and Engineering, Estonian University of Life Sciences, Tartu, Estonia https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5464-0415
Hussein Alkattan 5. Department of System Programming, South Ural State University, Chelyabinsk, Russia; 6.Directorate of Environment in Najaf, Ministry of Environment, Najaf, Iraq https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0281-082X
Mostafa Abotaleb Engineering School of Digital Technologies, Yugra State University, Khanty-Mansiysk, Russia https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3442-6865

Keywords:

Insolvency Law, Bankruptcy Proceedings, Judicial Efficiency, Asset Recovery, Foreign Creditor Participation, Descriptive Statistics, Segmented Trend Analysis, Linear Regression Modeling, Polynomial Curve Fitting, Time-Series Evaluation, Statistical Modelling, Empirical Legal Analysis

Abstract

This paper provides an in-depth analysis of Albania’s debt relief system over the period 1995–2020. The dataset comprises annual bankruptcy court caseloads, foreign-creditor participation rates, and asset-reclamation statistics, allowing an examination of long-term trends amid substantial fluctuations. Using segmented time-series regression, we identify significant structural turning points associated with two major legislative reforms in 2002 and 2016. Both the level and slope of annual bankruptcy filings increased markedly following these legal interventions. A fractional logistic model indicates that foreign-creditor involvement, consistently between 13% and 15%, increased notably after 2016, reflecting improved functionality of the international recognition system for cross-border operations. Asset-recovery rates, averaging 59%, were analysed using regression and Generalized Additive Models (GAMs), showing that recovery efficiency declines under heavier judicial caseloads but improves in years with greater foreign participation. Comparative analysis with Romania, Bulgaria, and Serbia demonstrates that Albania is approaching regional norms, though gaps remain between recovery performance and institutional capacity. Overall, the results highlight those judicial reforms, the use of statistical tools in administrative decision-making, and the combination of legal modernization, courtroom efficiency, and international integration are critical determinants of effective bankruptcy systems.